James Forsyth's suggestion in the Spectator that Nick Clegg might be angling his party for a vacant cenntre ground is an interesting one. Since the recession and the dawn of "austerity" politics has become more polarised. The Conservatives have been pushed towards the Right to calm the grassroots who feel their party has been hijacked by a soft hoodie hugging green agenda. Likewise, Labour have been pushed Left (despite attempts by Ed Miliband to distance himself from the Unions). This has left a void at the centre between a party that blames our current malaise on a "benefits culture" and a party which berates the rich for being unfairly wealthy. If Clegg was able to establish the Liberal Democrats as a party truly of the centre, he might have a chance of capturing some Tory and Labour strays who don't agree with the all or nothing rhetoric of the Left and Right. It does feel like there is a centre ground to be captured, however Clegg is playing a risky game if he believes the Lib Dems truly are the party capable of capturing it:
1. A centre might exist but it is unclear how popular it actually is with the voters. Though it seems that the two main parties have shifted further outwards it is perfectly possible this has created a void rather than a space at the centre. If this is the case then the centre is actually a fairly unpopular place to be and one which there might be little electoral sense in trying to capture.
2. The Lib Dems are still an extremely divided party. As Forsyth states possibly 3m Lib Dem voters have been lost due to the coalition. These voters are almost certainly of the Social Democrat persuasion. It is extremely unlikely that Clegg would be able to get them back. However figures such as Vince Cable recognise this and will resist any agenda which seemingly accommodates Conservative policy.
3. Due to the polarised nature of politics currently, Clegg's "centrist" policy runs the risk of appearing like a "Tory lite" strategy which has too much similarity to basic austerity and benefits bashing. While his conference speech does seem to point to relatively clearly defined differences between his policies and those of the Conservatives, he needs to be careful to ensure he makes these fully clear by election day. Any vagueness will be punished by the electorate.
4. "Add Yellow get Green" certainly appeals to alienated Conservative voters who voted Blue but got booted. There is little on offer from the other parties when it comes to Green issues and they have largely fallen off the agenda since the recession hit. The Conservatives certainly seem to feel that Green does not mean growth and Labour have been silent on the issue meaning there is space for someone to step in and offer a real alternative. The issue is whether this is really enough given current circumstances. Green growth is persuasive but unproven. It also runs the risk of seeming remote and irrelevant to people struggling to make ends meet. If Clegg can pull off orientating the Green agenda as a way to save money for individuals, while also promoting it as a way to kick start the economy then he might be onto a winner. Then he just has to hope enough people listen and care enough for it to get him the votes he desperately needs.
5. Europe. This is the exact antithesis of the Green strategy for the Lib Dems. Nationally, escaping from Europe is being portrayed as a true solution to the economic crisis and it is winning over voters. I'm not convinced that it is a really answer and probably owes its prominence in the media to the fact that UKIP have campaigned more effectively than the Green Party, however it is certainly something toxic to the Liberals. There is no way for Clegg to escape his pro-European credentials (even a divorce wouldn't be enough!) and while the troubles in Europe persist it just looks painful for their fortunes. Here Clegg has two options, downplay Europe or fight for its corner. I believe the latter is his only real chance, but while riots continue on the continent, this might just be the issue which prevents him having success in 2015.
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